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Climate deal ‘unlikely’ this year
Nov 6th
Two years ago, the world’s governments vowed to finalise a new treaty at next month’s climate summit in Copenhagen.
Climate Secretary Ed Miliband has until now said it could be done – but now he says only a political deal is likely, echoing some other senior figures.
Developing countries reacted with frustration and disappointment.
“When we left (UN talks in) Bali two years ago, we all expected that would be agreeing on a legally binding outcome to respond to the urgency… that we were on the verge of catastrophic climate change, so we’re very disappointed,” said Selwin Hart from Barbados, speaking for the group of small island developing states.
“If we don’t take urgent and ambitious action, the reality is that some small island developing states will not be around within a couple of decades – certainly not by the end of the century.”
This is thought to be the first time that UK ministers have acknowledged the slim chances of achieving anything legally binding.
In the middle of October, Mr Miliband said a new treaty looked “more do-able” following a meeting of the Major Economies Forum in London.
His comments now echo warnings from UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Denmark’s Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen and US chief climate negotiator Todd Stern that only a “politically binding” agreement can now be achieved.
Officials then warned it could take up to a full year to finalise the treaty.
New row over Colombia-US accord
Nov 5th
President Uribe’s deal with the US has caused concern in the region
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Colombian opposition groups have reacted angrily after details of a controversial military deal with the US were made public.
Under the 10-year deal, the US military will not only have access to military bases, but also be able to use major international civilian airports.
US personnel and defence contractors will also enjoy diplomatic immunity.
President Alvaro Uribe says the agreement will help rid Colombia of drugs gangs and left-wing rebel groups.
But leading opposition senator Gustavo Petro, of the left-wing PDA party, said the deal amounted to a virtual US occupation of Colombia.
The accord was signed last Friday but full details were only made public on Tuesday.
They reveal that the US military will have access to seven Colombian army, navy and air force bases and also be able to use civilian airports under conditions that have still not been made clear.
Colombia’s military commander, Gen Freddy Padilla, was quoted by national media as saying that the benefits of the agreement will be felt throughout the country as the US conducts anti-drug and anti-terrorist missions.
The deal has led to a worsening of already strained ties between Colombia and Venezuela.
Venezuela has broken off diplomatic relations with Bogota and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has warned that Colombian military bases could be used by the US to attack his country.
Other countries in the region, including Brazil and Chile, have also expressed concern.
The BBC’s Jeremy McDermott, in Colombia, says Colombia is increasingly isolated in the region, but does not seem to care, just so long as it has US support.
Boat capsizes off Cocos Islands
Nov 2nd
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A rescue operation is under way after a boat carrying about 40 people sank off the Cocos Islands in the Indian Ocean, Australian officials have said.
At least 17 people have been rescued by a merchant ship that is in the area.
But a spokeswoman for the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) said there was grave concern for the safety of any other people still in the water.
The Cocos Islands – an Australian ocean territory – lie roughly halfway between Australia and Sri Lanka.
Amsa said it had received a distress signal on Sunday reporting that a ship had a hole in its hull and was taking on water in rough seas about 350 nautical miles (650km) north-west of the island group.
Australia oil well catches fire
Nov 2nd
The company which runs the well, PTTEP Australasia, said the fire broke out as it made another attempt to plug a leak deep underwater at the West Atlas rig.
Engineers have been struggling for more than 10 weeks to stop the leak which is spewing out natural gas and oil at an estimated 400 barrels a day.
All workers were reported safe and were being evacuated from the installation.
A director of the company, Jose Martins, said the only way to stop the fire was to plug the leak.
“The measures which we have been able to take so far can only mitigate the fire. They will not stop the fire.
“The best way to stop the fire is to complete the well-kill and stop the flow of gas and oil at the surface from the H-1 well, cutting off the fuel source for the fire.”
Australian Resources Minister Martin Ferguson said in a statement that some of the world’s leading experts were working to fix the leaking well and respond to this latest problem.
Mr Ferguson said the National Offshore Petroleum Safety Authority had been called out to help fight the fire and that Geoscience Australia and the Australian Maritime Safety Authority were on standby.
But an opposition spokesman, Greg Hunt, accused Environment Minister Peter Garrett of doing nothing to stop the oil leak, which officials say has placed birds and marine species at risk.
“Ten weeks of complacency, 10 weeks of drift, 10 weeks of inaction from Mr Garrett,” he said.
“In the absence of action… the prime minister must step in and convene a national environmental emergency task force within the next 24 hours.”
PTTEP Australasia said it was planning to use another rig to pump a so-called heavy mud mix into the well later on Monday.
Abdullah to make run-off decision
Nov 1st
Saturday is the deadline Mr Abdullah has set for his “minimum conditions”
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President Hamid Karzai’s rival in the second round of the Afghan presidential poll says he will announce on Sunday whether he intends to quit the race.
Abdullah Abdullah called for the resignation of key election officials and others as a way to mitigate fraud and corruption in the vote.
But those demands were rejected earlier in the week in talks with Mr Karzai.
A senior adviser said that in talks on Friday, Mr Abdullah’s team decided he should not take part in the poll.
But Mr Adbullah’s campaign said on Saturday that no final decision had been made, and that the former foreign minister would announce his next move on Sunday.
Mubarak avoids talk of succession
Nov 1st
In the 28 years he has lead Egypt, Mr Mubarak has never named a deputy
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The Egyptian President, Hosni Mubarak, has promised further domestic reforms at the annual conference of his ruling National Democratic Party in Cairo.
In the opening speech, Mr Mubarak laid out plans for much-needed improvements to healthcare, education and transport.
However, the president did not address growing speculation that his son, Gamal, is being groomed to succeed him.
He has yet to announce whether will decide to run for a sixth term in the next presidential election in 2011.
On the eve of the conference, the NDP’s secretary-general said that choosing a successor to the president was not on the agenda.
“We have a special conference to choose the party’s candidate… which is not held annually, and choosing the party’s candidate for the presidency would be its one and only subject,” said Safwat al-Sharif.
Secrecy still shrouds Srebrenica
Oct 27th
Former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic has told The Hague he will boycott the start of his trial on Monday. The most serious charge against him is of genocide in the 1995 massacre of 8,000 people at Srebrenica.
Olenka Frenkiel considers whether the trial will air the full facts about what happened at Srebrenica, and set the record straight over the alleged complicity of Western governments.
“The Karadzic trial may well be the last opportunity to examine the issues of Srebrenica at the top level in a forensic setting. That’s why it’s a very important trial.”
Sir Geoffrey Nice was the chief prosecutor in the trial of Slobodan Milosevic at the criminal tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in The Hague.
Iraqi bomb disposal soldiers die
Oct 25th
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Fifteen Iraqi soldiers have been killed as they transported confiscated bombs to a disposal area, officials say.
The accident happened in northern Iraq, when one bomb exploded, igniting the other weapons and bombs, killing the soldiers on the truck.
They were driving to a vacant area in Bashika, east of Mosul.
The Iraqi army frequently undertakes controlled explosions in the area to dispose of confiscated weapons away from residential areas.
Mosul is one of the few remaining Iraqi cities where there is still routine insurgent violence.
On Thursday, a soldier and three policemen were shot dead.
Nationally, violence in Iraq saw a spike in August, with the highest number of violent deaths for more than a year.
Iraqi government figures showed that 393 civilians were killed that month, along with about 60 police officers and soldiers.
Can Iraqis move past sectarian divides?
Oct 25th
US combat troops have withdrawn from cities across Iraq
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Amid rising levels of violence and political uncertainty, is it realistic for US President Barack Obama to go ahead with his planned withdrawal from Iraq?
The clock is ticking.
By August of next year, all American combat troops are due to be withdrawn from Iraq – and the remainder by the end of 2011.
That’s the Obama plan. And that’s what American voters signalled they wanted when they elected him president.
But are the Iraqis ready to run their country and take charge of their security?
“Iraq today,” says Anas Altikriti, a Sunni Islamist, “is half-way between either being on the verge of collapse or on the verge of salvation.”
Interviews with Iraqi political figures suggest that Iraqis want the Americans to go, but are far from certain about what will happen if they do.
First draft of UK economic history
Oct 23rd
Many economists have said they expect this recovery to be slower than usual. But, if right, these data suggest it has not yet even arrived.
The very weak state of bank lending – and low state of household and business confidence in the UK and many other economies – are still taking their toll.
News of further falls in manufacturing and industrial output earlier this month had suggested that the figures might be weaker than initially hoped. But most expected the service sector to show modest growth.
However, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that output in this sector – which accounts for by far the largest share of the economy – showed another slight fall in the past three months, of 0.2%.
I suspect that the further decline in the service industries in the past quarter is a large part of the reason why so many forecasters have been caught short.
But it is worth remembering that the ONS does not have complete data for that part of the economy at this early stage – far from it. It is quite possible that the number will be revised.
Historically, official output numbers have tended to be revised upwards, over time. But this has been less true in recent times. The estimate for the first quarter of this year was eventually revised – downwards – by 0.7%.
The bottom line is that we should take this as very much a first draft of UK economic history – but clearly a disappointing one.
